5 Replies Latest reply on 17-Jul-2017 3:25 PM by sunnyblonde

    Module 7 Minds On Discussion

    teachontario.team

      Think about probability simulators. What size would the range be to simulate 1) coin flip 2) rolling dice 3) running the 100 metre dash with 6 lanes.

      Please post your thoughts below...

        • Re: Module 7 Minds On Discussion
          angelo

          Think about probability simulators. What size would the range be to simulate 1) coin flip 2) rolling dice 3) running the 100 metre dash with 6 lanes.

          Please post your thoughts below...

           

          Thinking about probability simulators, I would think that the size range would have to increase more gradually to simulate each of the three options (coin fliping, rolling dice and running the 100 metre dash with 6 lanes). This is because there are more factors/probabilities involved in rolling a dice for example than flipping a coin.

            • Re: Module 7 Minds On Discussion
              christygarrity

              I would just like to say that the probability of me understanding the Wiki Pick Random Function link is 0%. That one hurt my brain!

              But I did wrestle with the probability simulators. For the coin flip a person would have a 1 in 2 (50%) chance of landing on heads or tails. I remember that there is theory (what should happen in theory) and experimental? (what happens after you experiment with many trials).  But there would have to be a large number of tosses to get anywhere near that percentage. 100 seems like a big enough number. If you were doing it by hand, then there could be other factors that could change the outcomes such as the accuracy/height of the toss each time or whether the coin was tossed heads up or heads down or vice versa. But I think these may not effect the outcome as we are only interested in the end resulting heads or tails? I have had some luck playing these 50/50 odds at the roulette table playing red or black or odd and evens. My strategy is: If you bet red and black wins, then next time double the bet and stay on red. If black wins again, stay on red and double the bet again. If red wins then you win all your money back, plus more. Try it, it works. P.S: I got married in Las Vegas so that explains everything.

              I think the dice and the running with 6 lanes would be a similar problem if you were identifying the winner of the race or a specific place each time. 1/6 (16.66 %) chance of rolling/winning a specific number. It would be 5/6 chance not rolling that number/placing first which would be 83%. Unless you were recording the place that the runners finish in each race. Another variable would be if you were running against Andre DeGrasse, then the probability would be 100% 1st place for him. Did you see him run the Canadian Track and Field Championships? Look out Road Runner!

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                • Re: Module 7 Minds On Discussion
                  mrsnerino

                  I agree with both Angelo and Christy -- the size range would have to increase in each case to account for the number of possibilities.  I just recently worked with some grade 5 students on probability, though, and there seemed to be some misconceptions in this area.  It was difficult for students to be able to articulate the difference between experimental and theoretical probability (even if they weren't using those terms).  We did a take on the Doritos Roulette Challenge with Bean Boozled jellybeans and this seemed to help, so I'm sure that if I was able to incorporate some coding and exploration, that would really help, as well. 

                   

                  Doritos Roulette: Hot or Not? | How Many Chips Are Hot? 

              • Re: Module 7 Minds On Discussion
                mpetrella2

                From tossing a coin, to rolling dice and running a race with 6 lanes, the range of outcomes would increase. I agree with what has been posted, that the range increases because there are more factors that are involved. I always start my probability unit with learners playing kinesthetic games. I start with tossing a coin, moving to rock, paper scissors and then dice. Slowly increasing the range of outcomes to enable students to grasp the meaning of the terms experiential and theoretical.  Students begin to develop and understand the algorithm all on their own.  I am excited to code a probability game using scratch. The students will definitely benefit with coding and playing the probability games on scratch.

                • Re: Module 7 Minds On Discussion
                  sunnyblonde

                  Thank you, Christy!  This also hurt my brain.  I thought I was alone in that feeling.  First, and foremost, the font was too small, and secondly there was too much text for a person with ADHD.

                  The theory behind this sounds great but it is not anything I would ever need to use (rather like congruent triangles)